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Autor: Jarosław Jamka Nvidia once again beat earnings expectations in fine style (see Figure 1). The current Wall Street consensus for future revenue, two days after the earnings release is up approximately 5-10% compared to the consensus immediately before the May 22 earnings release – see Figure 2. But the most important issue for investors remains the question of further revenue growth. According to Market...Czytaj więcej...

Autor: Jarosław Jamka Unfortunately, there is not a clear-cut relationship between the dollar and the end of the cycle and the upcoming interest rate cuts. We had a significant strengthening of the dollar in 2014-2015 and 2021-2022 – that is, immediately before the interest rate hiking cycles. By coincidence, the dollar index increased by approximately 27% in both those periods – see Figure 1. In...Czytaj więcej...

Autor: Jarosław Jamka Today we got the inflation data for April in Canada. Headline inflation decreased from 2.90% in March to 2.69% in April (YoY). The desinflation process north of the USA is accelerating! It’s a good sign. As recently as December 2023, the difference between inflation in the USA and Canada was only 5bps. In April 2024 it is already 67 bps – see...Czytaj więcej...

Autor: Jarosław Jamka Last week, after the PPI and CPI data, the market reacted strongly dovishly, the narrative related to lower future inflation, more rate cuts by the FED and greater chances for a soft landing won. Table 1 summarizes returns of individual asset classes on both a weekly, May-month (MtD) and year-to-date (YTD) basis. The amazing performance of Mag7 is still worth mentioning (despite...Czytaj więcej...

Autor: Jarosław Jamka Potential GDP growth is the sum of the change in productivity and the change in population size. A growing population therefore means higher potential GDP growth. Descending population means lower GDP growth. According to the UN projection, China’s population will decrease by 160 million people by 2050, and by as much as 790 million people by 2100. This is more than a...Czytaj więcej...