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According to BofA’s Michael Hartnett: “Price & Positioning say long US dollar is summer pain trade, especially since „short dollar” is the top trade reco (recommendation) at Goldman, Morgan Stanley, DB and JPM.” One can only recall Bob Farrell’s rule 9: “When all the experts and forecasts agree – something else is going to happen.” What’s the pain trade? According to AI’s Copitol: “A pain...Czytaj więcej...

Trump’s approval rating refuses to rise any further and currently stands at 45.9% (according to Silver Bulletin). However, after a brief pause, US stocks are breaking out and it is possible that Trump’s approval rating will also continue to rise. See Figure 1. US stocks have been doing quite well since “Liberation Day,” especially the Nasdaq 100, which is now over 10% above its Liberation...Czytaj więcej...

“Buy Humiliation, sell Hubris” – this approach was presented by BoA’s investment strategist Michael Hartnett in his latest report “The Flow Show”. What is Humiliation? Just long-end US Treasuries! Humiliation #1: total return since 31-Dec-2006: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: +67,2% iShares Euro Govt Bond ETF: +71,7% iShares Core S&P500 ETF: +481,5% Humiliation #2: annualized total return since 31-Dec-2006: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond...Czytaj więcej...

As expected, Trump finally helped the stock market enter a correction… however Nasdaq100 is still 6.8% above its level on April 2nd (Liberation Day), and was even 9.5% above that level a few days ago. The S&P500 is also above its level on April 2nd (+2.3%), which is higher than other major stock indices – see Figure 1. Along with the strong rebound in stock...Czytaj więcej...

Autor: Jarosław Jamka Tesla’s 1Q25 results were weak, but better than feared. Revenue fell 9.2% YoY in Q1 – see Figure 1. However, Tesla’s share price is up 21% since the results were released (13% better than the S&P500) – see Figure 2 and Table 1. The positives that the market will likely focus on in the coming months include: 1) Elon will devote more...Czytaj więcej...

Autor: Jarosław Jamka Investors can’t call the first 100 days of Trump’s presidency successful! Unless someone had an overweight gold … But what can we expect in the second 100 days? Michael Hartnett (Investment Strategist) from Bank of America: “(…) price action now unwinding significantly as investors anticipate Trump policy pivot in second 100 days to lower tariffs, lower rates, lower taxes.” Will lower tariffs,...Czytaj więcej...