Jarosław Jamka – Strona 3 – iX ASSET MANAGEMENT S.A.

Amazon’s 2025 CAPEX? Try $105bln!

11 lutego, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

Autor: Jarosław Jamka The positives include generally solid results in Q4 2024 and growing margins, while the negatives include slightly weaker AWS revenues in Q4 2024 and weaker-than-expected guidance for Q1 2025. First, Amazon shares beat the S&P500 by 21% between the publication of Q3 2024 and Q4 2024 results (i.e. from October 31, 2024...

Lost in payroll revision?

9 lutego, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

Autor: Jarosław Jamka Together with the data on employment situation in January 2025, we also got the annual benchmark revisions. Why is an annual benchmark revision needed? Just … „to reflect comprehensive counts of payroll jobs for March 2024. These counts are derived primarily from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which counts...

Apple Intelligence – a game changer?

4 lutego, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

Autor: Jarosław Jamka In general, Apple showed weak results for the calendar 4th quarter of 2024 (some say better than feared). The most disappointing were sales in China… where revenues fell 11% YoY. Nevertheless, the next quarter may be a bit better… the company expects YoY revenue growth of “low to mid single digits” –...

Meta’s strong earnings!

2 lutego, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

Autor: Jarosław Jamka Meta showed strong Q4 2024 results – with Q4 revenue of $48.4B beating the Street by 3.2% – see Figure 1. It was also above Meta’s previous quarter guidance ($45-48B) – see Figure 2. Nevertheless, the company’s Q1 guidance was below market expectations (mid-range of only $40.65B vs. Street expectations of $41.7B)....

Microsoft disappointed – a little bit.

2 lutego, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

Autor: Jarosław Jamka Although Microsoft once again beat expectations for total revenue ($69.63B vs EST. $68.92B – see Figure 1), yet the most important thing for the market was the growth in Azur cloud revenue – which once again disappointed a little. In Q2/Dec 2025, Azure revenue grew only 31% (vs. expected 31.8%). Additionally, Microsoft’s...

All Weather Global Macro EUR – komentarz styczeń 2025

1 lutego, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze miesięczne

All-Weather-Global-Macro-Komentarz-Miesieczny-Styczen-2025Pobierz

Tesla – a self-driving wolf?

1 lutego, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

Autor: Jarosław Jamka Elon Musk on the earnings call: “I know people have said, „Well, Elon, the boy who cried like a wolf like several times.” But I’m telling you, there’s a damn wolf this time and you can drive it. In fact, it could drive you. It’s a self-driving wolf”. Analysts have a problem...

Trump’s Goldilocks ?

26 stycznia, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

Autor: Jarosław Jamka Figure 4 shows the risk-adjusted returns after normalizing to the S&P500 (e.g., although Bitcoin is up almost 50% since the election, in terms of S&P500 volatility it only means +13.7%). Over the past two weeks, the market has come to understand that Trump’s aggressive campaign policy announcements will not be as aggressive...

FOMO or FOMU ahead?

23 stycznia, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

Autor: Jarosław Jamka Yesterday, the S&P500 reached a new all-time high (intra-day). Only a few points are missing to the new ATH according to closing prices. Soft inflation + „soft Trump” + soft investor’s positioning & sentiment + strong AI (stargate) + strong earnings = ATH First things first …definitions: FOMO – fear of missing...

Risk Adjusted Returns

20 stycznia, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

Autor: Jarosław Jamka Since July 31, 2023, the S&P500 index has already had 4 major corrections with declines of 10.3%, 5.5%, 8.5% and the last correction of 4.3% – see Figure 1. During this time, the S&P500 rose by 30.7% and the Magnificent 7 index by as much as 70.4%. Figure 2 shows the returns...

Can GDP tracker predict bear market?

17 stycznia, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

Autor: Jarosław Jamka Retail sales for December 2024 were a bit disappointing with only +0.4% increase (expected +0.6%), but Retail Control (which goes straight into GDP calculations) was quite strong +0.7% (expected +0.4%). This was immediately reflected in the Atlanta GDP tracker, where consumer spending (real PCE) rose to 3.69% in Q2 (SAAR) from the...

Term Premium at its highest in 11 years!

15 stycznia, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

Autor: Jarosław Jamka Why are bond yields still rising? 10Y UST has just broken through 4.80% and is threatening the stock market, but in practice, other assets as well. Recently, one of the common answers is the growing „term premium”. Figure 1 shows the term premium for the 10-year US bond yield (according to the...

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