Jarosław Jamka – Strona 2 – iX ASSET MANAGEMENT S.A.

Liberation or Ruination Day?

6 kwietnia, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

Autor: Jarosław Jamka The cover of the latest issue of The Economist clearly indicates „ruination day” and a shot in the foot when it comes to the US economy. The Ruination Day caused the S&P500 to fall by over 5% in one trading day on Friday (after falling by over 4% the day before). Historically,...

Long Gold, short Mar-A-Lago Accord!

31 marca, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

Autor: Jarosław Jamka Gold can be an ideal hedge for increased/high geopolitical risk.. Military conflicts, war in Ukraine, sanctions and tariffs, trade wars, lack of cooperation between Western countries, deglobalization, etc. In addition, historical bull markets in gold have given impressive returns! See Figure 1. In the 10 years from 2001 to 2011, for example,...

Is US exceptionalism over?

30 marca, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

Autor: Jarosław Jamka At least that’s what the market narrative suggests, which is based mainly on the poor performance of US assets (stocks, dollar) and, on the other hand, the outperformance of European and Chinese stocks (see Figure 1). A weak dollar means a strong euro. In addition, we have the end of a large...

Trump’s tariffs and Powell’s put

20 marca, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

Autor: Jarosław Jamka It was supposed to be a boring FOMC meeting, but as a result we have a quite dovish reaction of the markets. The Fed lowered the real GDP growth at the end of 2025 from 2.1% to 1.7% (Figure 1) and increased Core PCE, but only as of the end of 2025...

S&P500 -10%.. business as usual?

13 marca, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

Autor: Jarosław Jamka To make money in the capital markets, you have to take risk! That is, to some extent, accept volatility and drawdowns (during the daily mark-to-market process). Figure 1 shows all S&P500 drawdowns since the March 2009 bottom (based on daily closing prices). There were 29 total declines above 5%. Table 1 shows...

Can “growth scare” overturn “inflation scare”?

3 marca, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

Autor: Jarosław Jamka Widespread expectations of higher tariffs have boosted goods imports, as seen in preliminary data for January: +$32 billion MoM; +24.1% YoY – see Figures 1, 2 and 3. Increased imports have upended Q1 2025 GDP – the Atlanta GDP tracker is now negative at -1.5% – but that is due to a...

Cause It Takes Two To Tango!

2 marca, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

Autor: Jarosław Jamka Immediately after Trump won the election, both Tesla and Bitcoin took off like a rocket… Tesla +91% and Bitcoin (only) +52% – see Figure 1. However, from the top, Tesla was down 41% and Bitcoin 21% – see Figure 2. Bitcoin is currently up about 10% on the news that President Trump...

A Porsche with no brakes.. unstoppable PLN

25 lutego, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

Autor: Jarosław Jamka Since the US presidential election, the Polish PLN has strengthened against the EUR by 4.8%. This is more than the S&P500 increased during the same period (only +3.47%). Of course, this is not an apples-to-apples comparison. The realized volatility of the PLN (calculated over the last 3 months) is 3.7% (annualized value),...

Trump 2.0: Inflationary or Deflationary ?

23 lutego, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

Autor: Jarosław Jamka Net net… policy of the new US administration may turn out to be deflationary. As there are some unknown lags, we will have to wait to see this in the current data. Tariffs may increase inflation in the short/medium term, but the final effect should be negative for growth. Spending cuts related...

20-day winning streak & +21% up!

15 lutego, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

Autor: Jarosław Jamka Meta can’t have a single down day! After yesterday’s close, it’s already the 20th positive day in a row! See Table 1. The information that Meta intends to invest in AI-powered humanoid robots was enough to score another positive day! This initiative will be under a new team formed within Meta’s Reality...

Meta – winning in style!

14 lutego, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

Autor: Jarosław Jamka Not only did Meta reach another all-time high ($729 intraday and $728.56 close), but it also set another record: 19th consecutive positive day.. the longest winning streak of any Nasdaq stock ever… – see Table 1. But that’s not the end of the records.. if we look at the rate of return...

AI Capex up – Nvidia down ?

12 lutego, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

Autor: Jarosław Jamka How much can 2 weeks change.. while releasing Q4 2024 earnings… the big-techs surprised the market with increased spending plans for AI Capex in 2025… Bank of America: “In their first earnings since the introduction of DeepSeek R1 all major cloud hyperscalers pointed to a much stronger capex outlook as we had...

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