Jarosław Jamka – IX ASSET MANAGEMENT S.A.

Nvidia: zyski w górę, cena w dół ? Business as usual (do czasu)

1 marca, 2026Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne, Uncategorized

Nvidia opublikowała wyniki 25 lutego br. i skumulowany spadek kursu po dwóch dniach od publikacji wyniósł -9.4%. A to jest najbardziej negatywna reakcja rynku w ostatnich 3 latach ! Patrz Figure 1. Generalnie przez ostatnie 7 kwartałów nie było istotnej pozytywnej reakcji rynku… Ostatnie mocno pozytywne reakcje to Q1 2025 (publikacja maj 2025), oraz Q4...

AI Agents don’t sleep, take sick days or require health insurance !

25 lutego, 2026Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

W tym tygodniu strach przez AI wszedł na nowy poziom. W niedzielę Citrini Research opublikował post, w którym opisał co może się wydarzyć w następnych dwóch latach, jeżeli AI negatywnie wpłynie na zatrudnienie i marże spółek, czyli innymi słowy w wielu zawodach nie tyle wspomoże co zastąpi ludzi, a wiele spółek z „starymi” modelami biznesowymi...

2026: Gold & Semis versus Software

22 lutego, 2026Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

S&P500 jest jedynie +0,94% w 2026 roku, ale to bynajmniej nie oznacza że na rynku jest spokojnie i mamy boczny trend.Najwyższe stopy zwrotu od początku roku mamy na producentach półprzewodników jak koreański indeks KOSPI, który YTD jest już +38%!Dalej Gold +18%, Srebro +18% i indek SOX +16,6%.Na drugim końcu rankingu stóp zwrotu są Bitcoin -22,3%...

Oracle on fire ? Just +22% in two days !

15 czerwca, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

Safra Ada Catz, CEO & Director during the earnings conference: “So the Oracle database is on fire. And it is only the beginning (…).” After publishing solid financial results for Q4-2025, Oracle’s management surprised investors with a very positive guidance. As a result, Oracle’s share price rose by 22% in two days and is already...

Summer pain trade ? US Dollar !

8 czerwca, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

According to BofA’s Michael Hartnett: “Price & Positioning say long US dollar is summer pain trade, especially since „short dollar” is the top trade reco (recommendation) at Goldman, Morgan Stanley, DB and JPM.” One can only recall Bob Farrell’s rule 9: “When all the experts and forecasts agree – something else is going to happen.”...

¡No muy bueno!

3 czerwca, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

Trump’s approval rating refuses to rise any further and currently stands at 45.9% (according to Silver Bulletin). However, after a brief pause, US stocks are breaking out and it is possible that Trump’s approval rating will also continue to rise. See Figure 1. US stocks have been doing quite well since “Liberation Day,” especially the...

Nvidia – an AI beast ?

1 czerwca, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

As a reminder, Nvidia’s quarterly revenue for Q3 2022 (calendar basis) was less than $6 billion, or $5.93 billion to be exact! According to the company’s guidance, quarterly revenue in Q2 2025 (calendar basis) is to be $45 billion +/-2%! This is the definition of a beast! See Figure 1. Figure 2 shows the division...

Tesla update

4 maja, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

Autor: Jarosław Jamka Tesla’s 1Q25 results were weak, but better than feared. Revenue fell 9.2% YoY in Q1 – see Figure 1. However, Tesla’s share price is up 21% since the results were released (13% better than the S&P500) – see Figure 2 and Table 1. The positives that the market will likely focus on...

Markets (business) as usual: the pain of selling low and buying high

26 kwietnia, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

Autor: Jarosław Jamka As usual, fear (emotions) is not your best friend .. The S&P500 is already +14.3% above the low (according to intraday prices) and only 2.6% below the Liberation Day’s tariff announcement.. see Figure 1. The situation on Tesla and Bitcoin looks interesting – it’s still “almost the same trade”. Tesla is +0.8%...

(So far) this time is different!

19 kwietnia, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

Autor: Jarosław Jamka Historically, European stocks (being more cyclical) have usually outperformed US when the global economic recovery started and the dollar fell against the euro, usually after previous risk-off episodes during which we had a strengthening of the dollar against the euro (while stocks dropped). We had a couple of such episodes: – in...

S&P500 bear market drawdowns

14 kwietnia, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

Autor: Jarosław Jamka Is buying the S&P500 after a 25% drop from its previous ATH a good buy? Yes, at least since 2009… Since March 2009, there have been only 16 trading days (out of 4,051 total) when the S&P500 was (based on closing prices) at least 25% below its previous ATH – see Figure...

Liberation or Ruination Day?

6 kwietnia, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

Autor: Jarosław Jamka The cover of the latest issue of The Economist clearly indicates „ruination day” and a shot in the foot when it comes to the US economy. The Ruination Day caused the S&P500 to fall by over 5% in one trading day on Friday (after falling by over 4% the day before). Historically,...

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