Jarosław Jamka – IX ASSET MANAGEMENT S.A.

Oracle on fire ? Just +22% in two days !

15 czerwca, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

Safra Ada Catz, CEO & Director during the earnings conference: “So the Oracle database is on fire. And it is only the beginning (…).” After publishing solid financial results for Q4-2025, Oracle’s management surprised investors with a very positive guidance. As a result, Oracle’s share price rose by 22% in two days and is already...

Summer pain trade ? US Dollar !

8 czerwca, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

According to BofA’s Michael Hartnett: “Price & Positioning say long US dollar is summer pain trade, especially since „short dollar” is the top trade reco (recommendation) at Goldman, Morgan Stanley, DB and JPM.” One can only recall Bob Farrell’s rule 9: “When all the experts and forecasts agree – something else is going to happen.”...

¡No muy bueno!

3 czerwca, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

Trump’s approval rating refuses to rise any further and currently stands at 45.9% (according to Silver Bulletin). However, after a brief pause, US stocks are breaking out and it is possible that Trump’s approval rating will also continue to rise. See Figure 1. US stocks have been doing quite well since “Liberation Day,” especially the...

Nvidia – an AI beast ?

1 czerwca, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

As a reminder, Nvidia’s quarterly revenue for Q3 2022 (calendar basis) was less than $6 billion, or $5.93 billion to be exact! According to the company’s guidance, quarterly revenue in Q2 2025 (calendar basis) is to be $45 billion +/-2%! This is the definition of a beast! See Figure 1. Figure 2 shows the division...

Tesla update

4 maja, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

Autor: Jarosław Jamka Tesla’s 1Q25 results were weak, but better than feared. Revenue fell 9.2% YoY in Q1 – see Figure 1. However, Tesla’s share price is up 21% since the results were released (13% better than the S&P500) – see Figure 2 and Table 1. The positives that the market will likely focus on...

Markets (business) as usual: the pain of selling low and buying high

26 kwietnia, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

Autor: Jarosław Jamka As usual, fear (emotions) is not your best friend .. The S&P500 is already +14.3% above the low (according to intraday prices) and only 2.6% below the Liberation Day’s tariff announcement.. see Figure 1. The situation on Tesla and Bitcoin looks interesting – it’s still “almost the same trade”. Tesla is +0.8%...

(So far) this time is different!

19 kwietnia, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

Autor: Jarosław Jamka Historically, European stocks (being more cyclical) have usually outperformed US when the global economic recovery started and the dollar fell against the euro, usually after previous risk-off episodes during which we had a strengthening of the dollar against the euro (while stocks dropped). We had a couple of such episodes: – in...

S&P500 bear market drawdowns

14 kwietnia, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

Autor: Jarosław Jamka Is buying the S&P500 after a 25% drop from its previous ATH a good buy? Yes, at least since 2009… Since March 2009, there have been only 16 trading days (out of 4,051 total) when the S&P500 was (based on closing prices) at least 25% below its previous ATH – see Figure...

Liberation or Ruination Day?

6 kwietnia, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

Autor: Jarosław Jamka The cover of the latest issue of The Economist clearly indicates „ruination day” and a shot in the foot when it comes to the US economy. The Ruination Day caused the S&P500 to fall by over 5% in one trading day on Friday (after falling by over 4% the day before). Historically,...

Long Gold, short Mar-A-Lago Accord!

31 marca, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

Autor: Jarosław Jamka Gold can be an ideal hedge for increased/high geopolitical risk.. Military conflicts, war in Ukraine, sanctions and tariffs, trade wars, lack of cooperation between Western countries, deglobalization, etc. In addition, historical bull markets in gold have given impressive returns! See Figure 1. In the 10 years from 2001 to 2011, for example,...

Is US exceptionalism over?

30 marca, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

Autor: Jarosław Jamka At least that’s what the market narrative suggests, which is based mainly on the poor performance of US assets (stocks, dollar) and, on the other hand, the outperformance of European and Chinese stocks (see Figure 1). A weak dollar means a strong euro. In addition, we have the end of a large...

Trump’s tariffs and Powell’s put

20 marca, 2025Jarosław JamkaKomentarze dzienne

Autor: Jarosław Jamka It was supposed to be a boring FOMC meeting, but as a result we have a quite dovish reaction of the markets. The Fed lowered the real GDP growth at the end of 2025 from 2.1% to 1.7% (Figure 1) and increased Core PCE, but only as of the end of 2025...

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